DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110745
SWOD48
SPC AC 110745

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE REASONABLE SIMILARITIES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AND PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...AT
LEAST THROUGH ABOUT D6/TUESDAY 16 APRIL. DURING THIS PERIOD...A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM MAY MAINTAIN TSTM
CHANCES AND RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON D4-5...MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED DAY 1-2 FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY LIMIT AIRMASS RECOVERY AND THIS SHOULD SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION.

OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH A BELT OF DEEP-LAYER
SWLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

UNTIL THE WRN TROUGH MAKES SUBSTANTIAL EWD PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY...THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS PROCESS MAY BEGIN
TO UNFOLD BEYOND D6/TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GEFS/EURO/CMC...AND UKMET
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE AND PRESENT VARIOUS TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
SOLUTIONS IN THE D7-8 TIME FRAME. THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN PATTERN EVOLUTION AND SUBSEQUENT PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

..CARBIN.. 04/11/2013

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