DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140832
SWOD48
SPC AC 140831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY4
PERIOD REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...MAJOR DIFFERENCES ARE EXPOSED BY
WEDNESDAY IN THAT THE GFS ERODES THE CP AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLONE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS KS
INTO SRN IA BY MIDNIGHT. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POLAR
SURGE AND THE LACK OF A MEANINGFUL SFC LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
CP AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MAY BETTER REPRESENT THE TRUE
SURGE THAT COULD OCCUR BY DAY4. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY AND A SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS OK THEN PROGRESS AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. IN ADDITION TO A SQUALL
LINE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
OVER CNTRL/NERN TX. WHILE THE ECMWF MAY BETTER DEPICT THE SCENARIO
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT WOULD
POTENTIALLY UNFOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

..DARROW.. 04/14/2013

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