DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190900
SWOD48
SPC AC 190859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH DAYS 6-7.

ON DAY 4/MONDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS /POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING PARTS OF KS-OK-FAR NORTHWEST TX/...MOST LIKELY FOCUSED
ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND/OR DRYLINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE ORGANIZED STORM MODES MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE...ANTICIPATED MODEST NATURE OF MOISTURE RETURN /GIVEN
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ADVANCEMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO/
CURRENTLY LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.

INTO DAY 5/TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND TOWARD THE MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH LIKELY AMPLIFIES.
AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX TO LOWER/PERHAPS MIDDLE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE OVERALL RISK IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR MAY TEND TO LAG THE FRONT /ARKLATEX TO LOWER
MS VALLEY/...AND GIVEN THAT MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE MARGINAL
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY VICINITIES.

FOR DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS/SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE GULF COAST REGION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...BUT AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 04/19/2013

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