DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020830
SWOD48
SPC AC 020830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...FLORIDA AND SRN GA FRI/D4...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES ON
FRI/D4. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF AS WELL
AS NAM MOVE THE SYSTEM SLOWER. WHILE THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A 96 HR OUT SEVERE
AREA. THE FASTER SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER SOLUTION
INDICATES A SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONALLY...A DAMAGING
SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A FEW QLCS TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE CNTRL AND NRN FL...PERHAPS INTO FAR
SRN GA...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND WHERE THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE. HOWEVER...WIND DAMAGING POTENTIAL COULD
EXTEND INTO FAR SRN FL AS WELL.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MON/D7...
DESPITE SHORT TERM DISCREPANCIES...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING A WRN TROUGH...AND EJECTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS ON MON/D7. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
INTO OK BY MON...SUGGESTING AN UNBROKEN FETCH FROM THE GULF...WHILE
THE ECMWF MIXES DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
REGARDLESS...IF THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HOLDS TRUE...A DRYLINE
SUPERCELL EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
TORNADO DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AS STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BOTH FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MOISTURE QUALITY QUESTIONS...TIMING OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT AREA...NO AREA WILL BE OUTLINED AT THIS
TIME.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TUE/D8...
MODELS AGREE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MID TO UPPER
60S F DEWPOINTS LIKELY AS FAR N AS ERN OK/AR BY TUE. WHILE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...PREDICTABILITY DECREASES ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS. THE GFS SHOWS A FEATURE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH DIGGING SWD OVER THE SWRN CONUS.

..JEWELL.. 04/02/2013

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