DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210900
SWOD48
SPC AC 210859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2013

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED/BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY INITIALLY EXISTS REGARDING A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT-OFF LOW /EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BAJA
VICINITY/...WITH OVERALL SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY OTHERWISE
CONSIDERABLY DECREASING THROUGH DAYS 6-8 WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
ZONAL REGIME.

ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...TSTMS/SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA. WHILE SOME
SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE /30 PERCENT
EQUIVALENT/ IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...AND
OVERALL DESTABILIZATION COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL.

WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM/S POTENTIAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT TOWARD THE
PLAINS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD RETURN TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
VALLEY...BY AROUND DAYS 6/7 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN EXTENSIVE
FRONTAL PENETRATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
MID-WEEK...AND THUS MOISTURE SHOULD STEADILY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH DAYS 6-8 GIVEN THE EXPECTED OVERALL
PATTERN.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2013

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