DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050854
SWOD48
SPC AC 050854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

WHILE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SWRN PORTION OF
THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST. THE WRN TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY
MID-WEEK AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. BY THIS TIME...SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EWD TOWARDS
THE MS VALLEY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING
BENEATH A STOUT EML...A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP.

DESPITE AVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES BY D5-6...INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RENDER A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GREATEST DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH PRIMARILY
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ON D5 AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE...AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM AND DEVELOP EWD TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY WITH PRIMARY RISKS BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ON
D6. PRIOR TO D5...A LOCALIZED BUT ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/FEW TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION EXPECTED TO BE INVOF NWRN KS ON MON EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 04/05/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.