ACUS48 KWNS 060845
SWOD48
SPC AC 060845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT SAT APR 06 2013
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
S-CNTRL AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY THE SERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE WRN CONUS. PRECEDING
DAYS OF SLY RETURN FLOW OF A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS BENEATH A STOUT
EML SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE PLAINS DRYLINE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PROGRESS EWD DURING THE PERIOD. WITH STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL
SWLYS AS THE SPEED MAX EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS
TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN EVENTUAL
SQUALL LINE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ PROBABLE
DURING D4-5. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE FOR HIGHLIGHTING
CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED COVERAGE PROBABILITIES /AOA 30 PERCENT/ AS
MODELS REMAIN MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH TIMING OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC
FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DISCREPANCIES WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOME EVEN GREATER BY
D6-7...WHERE SEVERE WEATHER AREAS COULD EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..GRAMS.. 04/06/2013
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