MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385

ACUS11 KWNS 041409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041408
FLZ000-041515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CDT THU APR 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041408Z - 041515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS
MOVE INLAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S FL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING A STATIONARY E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA THROUGH CNTRL FL. A
MOIST WARM SECTOR EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS BREAKS SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES. THE MIAMI SOUNDING
INDICATED A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX DOWN SLIGHTLY AS HEATING COMMENCES...BUT AT LEAST MID 60S SHOULD
BE REPRESENTATIVE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 80S. VWP DATA INDICATE DEEP SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT OVER
CNTRL FL. THOUGH 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
LARGE...VEERING LOW LEVEL PROFILES EXIST...AND STORMS MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL...POSSIBLY
AUGMENTING THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LINE OF STORMS JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST OF FL ALREADY SHOWS ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS S FL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE UNSTABLE AND DEEP SHEAR AROUND 45-50 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 27608257 27668176 27878053 26828012 25718048 26448191
27608257

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