MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0386

ACUS11 KWNS 041823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041823
FLZ000-042000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 82...

VALID 041823Z - 042000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 82 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH S FL.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE MCS
EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL FL SWWD INTO THE ERN GULF. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER SOUTH FL CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW 80S...BUT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG. VWP DATA INDICATE 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.
HOWEVER...WINDS IN 0-2 KM LAYER ARE WEAK RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
SMALL HODOGRAPHS AND SUGGESTING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE SUPPORTED
MAINLY BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES SUCH AS UPDRAFT-BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. OTHER MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR
MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSE A SEVERE RISK.

..DIAL.. 04/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 26328184 27058159 27298097 27538030 26368010 25268028
25228098 26328184

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