MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0422

ACUS11 KWNS 100724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100724
WIZ000-MNZ000-101230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO PART OF SRN WI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 100724Z - 101230Z

SUMMARY...A PROLONGED 3-6 HOUR FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO ERN WI WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOCATIONS INVOF OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN FAR SERN MN AND ADJACENT WI COUNTIES...MAY
HAVE A SHORTER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW 32 F BETWEEN 09-12Z.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOWED TEMPERATURES E OF THE MS RIVER INTO CENTRAL
TO ERN WI WERE AT OR JUST BELOW 32 F...WITH THESE VALUES GENERALLY
IN AN AREA FROM KCMY /SPARTA WI/ TO KETB /OR 35 NNW KMKE/ AND FROM
WEST CENTRAL WI TO THE DOOR PENINSULA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
KMSN TO 30 E MSN AT KRYV ARE FALLING AND HAVE REACHED 33 F AT 07Z.
THE SWD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WILL PERSIST AS INDICATED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF/NAM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN ONGOING
ACROSS THIS PART OF WI WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.1-0.25 INCH PER
HOUR.

40-45 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING INTO NRN IL/SRN WI WILL
MAINTAIN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTING THE
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SERN
MN...SHOULD REACH WOOD/MARATHON COUNTIES WI TO SAUK COUNTY WI BY
09-11Z...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER E TO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE WRN
SHORE OF LAKE MI EXPERIENCING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN.
THE TIMING OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF WI IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z 4 KM WRF-NMM
AND NSSL. MEANWHILE...THE 10/00Z AFWA AND 09/12Z SSEO ENSEMBLES
SUPPORTED THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPES BEING PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN
WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH NWD EXTENT.

..PETERS.. 04/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 44649039 44628862 44678811 44758741 44208747 43638769
43358808 43248886 43319036 43519118 43919145 44119190
44459170 44649039

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