MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0462

ACUS11 KWNS 131926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131925
TXZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131925Z - 132030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AGITATED CUMULUS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS FAR SW TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31560475 31270374 30830308 30010263 29440285 29630389
29920461 30950539 31330530 31560475

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