ACUS11 KWNS 141139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141138
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-141315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF LA...MS AND AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141138Z - 141315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SERN LA
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST NEAR THE LA COAST. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN PLAQUEMINES PARISH
AND IS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ANALYZED
JUST OFFSHORE SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE. THE NEW ORLEANS WSR-88D VWP IS
SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHOWS 0-1 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 35 TO
40 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND CONTINUING
TO PROVIDE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CELLS WILL BE MOVING NWD AWAY FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. FOR THIS
REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE
COASTS OF LA...MS AND AL AND THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG THIS MORNING.
..BROYLES/HART.. 04/14/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29048961 29258886 29638812 29838791 30178770 30438776
30528807 30448883 30229057 29939098 29599115 29309105
29189047 29048961
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