ACUS11 KWNS 241400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241400
MSZ000-LAZ000-241530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 137...
VALID 241400Z - 241530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 137 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 137 OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND SCNTRL LA WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SE LA INTO SW MS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES
ARE IN TH 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN NEW ORLEANS SHOWS
45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 20 KT. THIS WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LCL-HEIGHTS AROUND 500 METERS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS MOVES EWD INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY.
..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/24/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31619011 30799094 30259191 29859222 29499197 29149122
29029035 28988970 28808914 29218883 29748887 30358886
31258906 31619011
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