DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101631
SWODY1
SPC AC 101629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN....CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
CENTRAL PA...

...TX...
BOTH VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSIS REVEAL A PLETHORA OF
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS TX TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF
40-50KT PERSISTS OVER THE SRN HALF OF TX ON THE SRN/ERN FLANK OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE SCALE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS TO NRN BAJA. PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL STREAM
WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH AREAS OF STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW SURGES...GREATEST
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY NOW RESIDES ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX WHERE STRONG
CAPPING WILL LIKELY PERSIST DUE TO PRONOUNCED EML PLUME. FROM
TRANS-PECOS REGION ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...AREAS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AMIDST MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION/PERSISTENCE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT
MAY ALSO EVOLVE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AS FRONTAL WAVE/LOW
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE PERHAPS PEAKING AROUND 1000
J/KG. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY MAGNITUDE
OF FORCING/ASCENT AND AREAS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM NRN WV
ACROSS SERN OH AND INTO PA. HERE EXPECT A GRADUAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE VIGOR AMIDST SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED
LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..CARBIN/DARROW.. 05/10/2013

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