DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 222000
SWODY1
SPC AC 221958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...

...APPALACHIANS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS LOCATED ACROSS THIS REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. STRONGER HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA...AND STRONG OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM SWRN PA SWD ALONG THE CREST OF APPALACHIANS. AS THE
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM WRN PA INTO WRN/CENTRAL NY...SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT /30-40 KT/ WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT.

FARTHER WEST OVER PARTS OF THE WRN OH AND TN VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING/SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED.

..WEISS.. 05/22/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PROMINENT BLOCKING PATTERN NOW PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE
CURRENTLY PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
REMNANT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED
WITHIN A CONFLUENT REGIME INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH A
LARGE AND COLD MID/UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
COAST STATES. WHILE SOME DEVIATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LIKELY...THIS WILL MOSTLY BE IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.

...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY HAS
IMPACTED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW
NOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS. AND THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS /TO AROUND 40 KTS OR SO/ IN A SOUTHERLY
BELT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN THE PEAK HEATING.

SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES WITH AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CREST OF BROADER SCALE UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK...WHERE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE
SLOWER TO BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED SOME OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...BUT SEVERE
HAIL STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
STRONGER HEATING ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH
WESTERN MONTANA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE
AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH STRONG CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER FLOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT INSTABILITY ON A VERY LOCALIZED BASIS COULD BECOME ENOUGH FOR A
SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.

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