DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071959
SWODY1
SPC AC 071957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2013

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE...NWRN OK INTO WRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SWRN TX...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. A FEW
HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CUMULUS IS INCREASING ALONG AXIS OF DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS. DIABATIC WARMING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEWPOINTS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SURFACE LAYER DECOUPLES AND STORMS BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH OTHER HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX AND POSSIBLY ALONG SRN EXTENSION OF DRYLINE MAY
INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD AND INTERCEPT MOIST AXIS. STORM
INITIATION IN THIS REGION IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AND COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED DUE TO PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER
AIR AT BASE OF EML.

..DIAL.. 05/07/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT TUE MAY 07 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH THE WLYS ONCE AGAIN REMAINING
CONFINED TO CNTRL CANADA. SRN APPALACHIANS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
WOBBLE SLOWLY NE INTO CNTRL VA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE CENTER
OF CA/NV LOW CONTINUES E TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS...LEAD IMPULSE IN MODERATE WSW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS
SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E INTO OZARKS...WHILE UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA ADVANCES E/NE INTO W TX
THIS EVE.

LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY SEASONAL STANDARDS IN MOST
AREAS. LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER...INTO
SRN/CNTRL VA AND ERN MD/DE...N AND E OF THE SE U.S. UPR LOW. IN
ADDITION...SFC AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW DATA SUGGEST A NARROW
CURRENT OF MODEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NNW UP THE RIO
GRANDE VLY INTO W TX.

...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY IN
WAKE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL KS/WRN
OK. SOME DEGREE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY WILL PREVAIL IN WAKE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS THROUGH THE DAY. IN
CONTRAST...WEAK ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD W TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
NM/CHIHUAHUA UPR IMPULSE. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED IN KS...MODEST ADVECTION UP THE RIO GRANDE COULD BOOST SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS SW/W CNTRL TX.

DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
RATHER STRONGLY-FOCUSED LOW-LVL UPLIFT INVOF LEE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF
SCTD LATE AFTN/EVE STORMS IN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES OVER WRN KS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH IN W
CNTRL/SW TX...WHERE GREATER MOISTURE AND MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD EXIST. WHILE WIND PROFILES WILL BE AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH/STORM SEVERITY. THE ACTIVITY IN BOTH AREAS COULD MERGE INTO
SMALL CLUSTERS POSING A CONTINUED RISK FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...BEFORE WEAKENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING LATER TNGT.

...VA THIS AFTN...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL
APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTN OVER PARTS OF VA...IN NE QUADRANT OF UPR
LOW. WHILE 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY OVER NC...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F. IN
THE AREA OF EXPECTED GREATEST UPSLOPE FLOW/STORM COVERAGE...I.E.
OVER W CNTRL VA...WIND PROFILES WITH DEEP...RELATIVELY
MODEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SE FLOW SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
UPSTREAM-DEVELOPING MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAT COULD YIELD HEAVY
RAIN...IN ADDITION TO A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

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