DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150057
SWODY1
SPC AC 150055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND SW
TX...

...WEST AND SW TX...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO
WITH A VORTICITY MAX JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES NEWD INTO SOUTHWEST TX OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD FROM NEAR DEL RIO TO BETWEEN
MIDLAND AND ABILENE. SBCAPE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS ESTIMATED IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION..THE WSR-88D VWP AT MIDLAND
SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BELOW 1 KM. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING
8.0 C/KM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED
CELLS. BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS MAY ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST IN THE DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS
AREAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED...REF MCD 642. A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT OVER NRN MEXICO IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THAT AREA ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 05/15/2013

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