DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 062000
SWODY1
SPC AC 061958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2013

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF WRN
NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF ERN KY...

...WRN NC THROUGH ERN KY...

WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCLUDING A LOW END SLIGHT
RISK OVER WRN NC MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SMALL SLIGHT RISK OVER ERN KY WHERE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE COLDER THAN IN NC AND WHERE SOME HAIL JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM WITHIN DRY SLOT REGION
WRAPPING AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OCCLUDED LOW...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE FURTHER...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG.
STORMS FORMING OVER ERN KY INTO WRN/CNTRL NC WITHIN THE NW-SE
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL TO 1-1.25 INCH THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT...7
C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUING AND THE WLYS REMAINING CONFINED TO
CNTRL CANADA...ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLOSED
LOWS NOW OFF THE CA CST AND OVER THE TN VLY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
IN GA WILL PIVOT NE AROUND THE TN VLY LOW...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVER THE CAROLINAS/SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE WEST...A SIMILAR
FEATURE WILL MOVE NE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN. A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE
ALSO WILL ADVANCE E IN SRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS NM/W TX.

MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE NATION AT LWR LVLS.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER...TO YIELD ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION/STORMS IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A TONGUE OF MARITIME AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NWWD INTO NC...AHEAD OF SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
GA UPR IMPULSE.

...NC/SRN VA THIS AFTN/EVE...
CONTINUED ESELY...LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED SFC HEATING AND
MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE...SHOULD RESULT
IN A BAND OF SCTD TO BROKEN STORMS ALONG NWD-MOVING CONFLUENCE AXIS
IN NC. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO TO MID 60S F FROM SW VA SEWD
INTO CSTL NC COULD YIELD SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.

DEEP WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THOSE NOW PRESENT
OVER REGION...WITH MODEST SPEEDS AND MEAN FLOW/DEEP SHEAR LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE. PROFILES
WILL...HOWEVER...EXHIBIT APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL VEERING. TAKEN
TOGETHER...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT BANDS OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY WITH OCCASIONAL...EMBEDDED...WEAKLY ROTATING
STRUCTURES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A DMGG WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO.

FARTHER SW...LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TOO DRY/COOL TO POSE A RISK
FOR SVR HAIL CLOSER TO UPR LOW CENTER IN TN/WRN NC/WRN SC/GA.

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