DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121732
SWODY2
SPC AC 121730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL TREND MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE AS AN EASTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A STRONG POLAR JET/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...LEADING TO INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION MONDAY. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME TSTMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR A SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH MODEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 0.60-0.75 INCHES/...INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT/TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DIURNAL
UPSWING IN TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ORE/FAR SOUTHEAST WA INTO NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUSTAINED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND. STORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND REACH
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MT BY EVENING...WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING /AT LEAST FOR A TIME/ INTO A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

...SOUTH FL...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HEAT AND SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
TO THE SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN INTO MONDAY...SUFFICIENT HEATING/STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ACCOUNT FOR A FEW STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTMS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.

..GUYER.. 05/12/2013

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