DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061732
SWODY2
SPC AC 061730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
CUTOFF LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN STATES LIKELY TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY
EWD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL EJECT NEWD INTO KS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF A STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
SD. AT SFC A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM VA SEWD INTO THE GULF
STREAM AREA.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE ERN U.S. CUTOFF LOW WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN GULF WHERE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SLY IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION...WITH ONLY MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADVECT ABOVE THE MODEST MOIST AXIS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH A NARROW AXIS OF 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN KS INTO WRN OK EAST OF THE
DRYLINE.

AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS OVER A PORTION OF WRN KS INTO NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY
OF THE DRYLINE. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...BUT A BELT OF 30-35 KT WINDS ALONG SRN FRINGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WILL ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS...WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2013

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