DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071732
SWODY2
SPC AC 071730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WCNTRL THROUGH NWRN
TX...WRN OK...ERN CO THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

WEDNESDAYS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A BLOCKING
REGIME WITH CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS FORECAST TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SRN
NEVADA WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE LOW
OVER SD WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN TO SHEAR EWD IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA.

SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM AN EVOLVING SFC LOW OVER
SWRN KS THROUGH WRN TX. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO
NELY FROM NRN KS INTO NEB...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LEE
LOW...WITH A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SFC LOW NEWD INTO SERN NEB.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

AS OF MID-DAY TUESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS PERSIST OVER MOST OF GULF IN
RESPONSE TO CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MODIFICATION OF THE
GULF BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN. AS THIS
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT FARTHER NE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A
BROADER ZONE OF SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN GULF. PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD THROUGH SRN PLAINS WARM
SECTOR....WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS DIABATIC WARMING
COMMENCES...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM WRN TX NWD INTO KS.

A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM PARTS OF
OK INTO KS WITHIN ZONE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
RESULTING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST
DURING THE MORNING ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SHARPENING DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS...WRN OK
INTO WRN TX. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE IN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE
REGIME NORTH OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN CO AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. BELT
OF MODEST UPPER FLOW WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM
SECTOR RESULTING IN 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BEFORE EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL
CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS KS. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH
EARLY-MID EVENING. GIVEN EXPECTED MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
VERTICAL SHEAR...OVERALL TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
ROBUST...BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..DIAL.. 05/07/2013

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