DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081732
SWODY2
SPC AC 081730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS
AND OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE NEWD AND BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BELT OF STRONGER NRN STREAM WLYS. UPPER LOW
OVER ERN SD IS TRANSITIONING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT IS PICKED UP BY
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NRN STREAM WLYS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. FARTHER WEST...THE LARGE
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE SWWD. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAKER VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE SRN
PLAINS REGION.

SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION IN RESPONSE TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN SD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD
INTO THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
INTO OK AND NWRN TX. DRYLINE WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN TX AND MIX EWD
DURING THE DAY BEFORE RETREATING OVERNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...

THE GULF WILL HAVE TIME TO UNDERGO FURTHER MODIFICATION...AND FETCH
OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT THROUGH TX AND OK WARM
SECTORS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME
STRATUS TO ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
WARM SECTOR...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT FROM THE WEST.
THESE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY FROM TX NWD INTO OK. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS
FORECAST ARE THE DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING IN WARM SECTOR. MULTIPLE AREAS OF INITIATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE SUCH AREA WILL BE ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION NEAR PEAK HEATING OVER NWRN TX AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTH
INTO CNTRL OK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOME DISTANCE SWD INTO WRN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. YET OTHERS
MAY INITIATE IN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS ERN NM AND SPREAD
EWD ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. BELT OF
STRONGER SRN STREAM FLOW WILL SUPPORT 35-45 KT OVER MUCH OF THE TX
WARM SECTOR SUGGESTING SUPERCELL MODES WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER NORTH INTO
OK...WEAKER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL MODES...BUT SOME STORMS MAY
DEVELOP MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.


...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

AXIS OF UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL IN
THIS REGION DUE TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THIS REGION RESULTING IN SIZEABLE HODOGRAPHS
WHICH ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT OR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT A CONDITIONAL
THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 05/08/2013

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