MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0595

ACUS11 KWNS 061813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061813 COR
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-061915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WRN VA...FAR ERN TN...CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061813Z - 061915Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM ERN KY INTO CNTRL NC
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW.

DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY
REGION...WITH A CONFLUENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD FROM ERN TN INTO
SERN NC. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE 50S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...MIDLEVEL DRYING IS ALLOWING
SKIES TO CLEAR FROM ERN KY INTO CNTRL NC...WHICH IS AIDING IN
WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT...WHICH IS GIVING WAY TO DEEPENING CUMULUS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...ADEQUATE BUOYANCY...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR OCCURRING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS TODAY.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 05/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON 35528143 37548413 38128388 37548213 36347982 35157848
34657887 35528143

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