MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0596

ACUS11 KWNS 070029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070028
TXZ000-NMZ000-070200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL NM...S PLAINS OF NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070028Z - 070200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT DUSK WITH A SUPERCELL CROSSING NM INTO THE S PLAINS OF
NW TX.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL OVER NRN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 30 MIN AS IT HAS TRACKED MORE TO
THE SE. MODIFIED 00Z AMA RAOB SUGGESTS BUOYANCY IS QUITE
LIMITED...GIVEN INFLOW SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WLYS WITH 40 KT AT 500 MB IN
THE ABQ RAOB TO 30 KT IN THE JAYTON TX WIND PROFILER HAS CLEARLY
SUPPORTED UPDRAFT ROTATION IN SPITE OF MEAGER BUOYANCY. 12Z WRF-NSSL
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAS APPEARED REASONABLY ACCURATE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SUPERCELL AND APPEARS LOGICAL IN ITS EVOLUTION
OF SUGGESTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE MAY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND
DUSK. EVENTUAL DEMISE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AT THAT
TIME AS THE EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING MLCIN BECOME
REALIZED.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34360317 34090174 33880133 33640122 33220130 32890151
32840195 33070253 33350321 33690365 34110367 34360317

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