ACUS11 KWNS 071757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071756
VAZ000-NCZ000-071900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...VA...NRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071756Z - 071900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
VA INTO NRN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...WEAK MID LEVEL VORT IS ROTATING NWD ACROSS NRN NC WITH
APPARENT CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR ORANGE COUNTY NC. STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING INVOF THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
INCREASED BUOYANCY AND CONVECTION. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO
LIGHTNING HAS INCREASED WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION NEAR THE VORT
CENTER. LATEST THINKING IS ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OVER SRN VA WITH DEEP SELY FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO TRAINING
ECHOES...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEAR A BIT TOO WEAK TO
WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36787993 37427952 37727869 37547730 36787674 36087733
36327861 36397955 36787993
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