ACUS11 KWNS 081920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081919
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-082015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NWRN TX...SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081919Z - 082015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN OK OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUICKLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER QUALITY DEW
POINTS...CHARACTERIZED BY 60F...NOW NORTH OF I-40 OVER OK. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER CU DEEPENING ACROSS SWRN OK WITHIN CONFLUENT MOISTENING FLOW.
DESPITE VEILED HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING ACROSS THIS
REGION...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENING SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ELLIS COUNTY IN NW OK. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF CAP AND GRADUAL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE OFF THE DRYLINE...OR ALONG
WEAK NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SFC
LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE...SEWD INTO NRN GRADY COUNTY.
..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36580015 37289949 37109808 35079777 33899858 33739990
34790028 36580015
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