MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0622

ACUS11 KWNS 101821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101821
PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WV...WRN PA...EXTREME WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101821Z - 101915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ORGANIZING
SQUALL LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED MCS WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF POST SQUALL
LINE PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS CENTER OF OLD MCV IS SHEARING
NEWD ACROSS KY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 40 SE OF SDF. STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND THIS APPEARS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE IN RECENT RASH OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF MATURING
SQUALL LINE. GIVEN THE MODEST SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW THERE IS REASON
TO BELIEVE SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS ERN OH/NRN WV AT ROUGHLY
30-35KT REACHING WRN PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND MOST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTS LESS THAN 40KT.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 05/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 40298283 41528157 42347869 40427773 37818139 40298283

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