MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0623

ACUS11 KWNS 101833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101833
TXZ000-101930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101833Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND RISK WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. AN ATTENDANT VERY LARGE HAIL
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A DECELERATING COLD FRONT FROM
THE TX BIG BEND EWD THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARCING WNWWD FROM 30 MI S SAT TO 20 MI S 6R6. THESE
BOUNDARIES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE TX BIG BEND AND NRN
COAHUILA WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CAP IS EFFECTIVELY REMOVED...AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF A BAJA CA
UPPER TROUGH. THE ELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LED TO
LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA SURROUNDING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1000-2500
J/KG MLCAPE/. STRONG WSWLY FLOW IN THE MID-HIGH LEVELS IS YIELDING
50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND WILL AID IN UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. AN ISOLD VERY
LARGE HAIL THREAT /2 INCHES OR GREATER IN DIAMETER/ IS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY INTENSE SUPERCELL...ALONG WITH A CONDITIONAL NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT GIVEN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW.

..SMITH/CARBIN.. 05/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29850413 30420227 30359983 29469930 28320002 29200395
29850413

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