ACUS11 KWNS 161921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161920
OHZ000-INZ000-162045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OHIO...CNTRL/ERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161920Z - 162045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SVR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...BASED ON A MODIFIED 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB...MLCAPE
VALUES ARE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
INSOLATION AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S BETWEEN A
WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING WITHIN 1-2 COUNTIES OF INTERSTATE
70 AND ONGOING CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. WILMINGTON OHIO VWP DATA INDICATE THAT 20-30 KT OF WNWLY/NWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVING FROM THE SWELLING
CUMULUS FIELD INVOF THE FRONT. WATER LOADING MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
NEARING SVR LEVELS...AND AN ISOLATED STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO
QUARTER SIZE. WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT...ANY SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/BRIEF.
..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/16/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...
LAT...LON 39308505 39548599 39848655 40168659 40088560 39808465
39828410 39668362 39388352 39218393 39308505
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