MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0662

ACUS11 KWNS 162048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162048
TXZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162048Z - 162215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WITH SVR WIND
GUSTS MAY EXIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 0-3-KM-AGL LAYER
ALONG/W OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE ARE SUPPORTING DEEP PBL
CIRCULATIONS INVOF THE DRYLINE. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG THE N/S EXTENT OF THE
DRYLINE...WHERE MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY...REMAINING MLCINH. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS
FAR HAS BEEN OVER PARTS OF ERN CO...WHERE RELATIVELY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CONTRIBUTING TO
REDUCED ENTRAINMENT FOR INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY IN CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS LOCATIONS
FARTHER S INTO W TX WHERE RELATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER
TEMPERATURES EXIST INVOF MODESTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE
DRYLINE.

HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LARGELY LACKING...AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW. FURTHERMORE...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA...FOSTERING A PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE.
REGARDLESS...INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION/DOWNDRAFTS MAY SUPPORT A VERY ISOLATED
SVR WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNALLY STABILIZES.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...

LAT...LON 38640286 38980228 38740143 37180110 33260100 31920129
31660197 31860247 32500265 33920284 37520289 38640286

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