ACUS11 KWNS 172102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172102
IAZ000-MNZ000-172200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172102Z - 172200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN MN INTO NRN
IA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF
THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.
DISCUSSION...TWO VERY SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SWRN MN ALONG A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE FLOW IS WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING IN THE WIND
PROFILE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...WITH MODERATE SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN PLACE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS AND MAY EXPAND INTO NRN IA BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
COMMENCES AND TSTM INTENSITY BEGINS TO WANE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED ON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
..DEAN/WEISS.. 05/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 44219603 44679628 45019606 44769530 44409434 44119378
43489258 43119255 42909288 42749345 42849409 43089474
43689549 44219603
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