MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0700

ACUS11 KWNS 191955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191955
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND SRN GA...FAR NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179...

VALID 191955Z - 192030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG-SVR WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY S-SEWD
PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS SRN GA AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NRN FL.
LOCAL OFFICES MAY CLEAR COUNTIES FROM WW 179 IN ITS WAKE...WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STABILIZED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A TSTM CLUSTER OVER W-CNTRL GA
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS...WITH A DIMINISHING
COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE. PROPAGATION NOW APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING
PARALLEL TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
E-CNTRL GA. ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION /I.E. 1300-1800 J/KG MLCAPE PER RAP
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/...WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THIS
CLUSTER MAY CONTINUE STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...A
STRONG-MARGINALLY SVR WIND THREAT MAY STILL EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 32638260 30958158 30498145 30078157 30108238 29858252
30008285 30308371 30588411 30718473 31068496 31798492
32488490 32768373 32638260

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