MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0701

ACUS11 KWNS 192027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192027
OKZ000-TXZ000-192130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK...ERN OK PANHANDLE...FAR NERN TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192027Z - 192130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY
DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR NWRN
OK. COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF BROAD DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING
TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR NWRN OK.
SFC ANALYSIS FROM 20Z INDICATES A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MERGE
WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS NWRN OK. A TSTM FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN RELATIVELY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR NEAR 20 WSW AVK...BUT
APPEARS TO NOW BE POSITIONED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NOTED ON SFC OBS.
FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST
IN THE PAST 1-2 HRS. DESPITE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...STEEP
LOW-/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG.
THIS...ALONG WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES FURTHER AS DRIER UPSTREAM AIR
CONTINUES SPREADING SEWD.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 36519821 36329854 36189937 36240059 36480088 36870102
36970030 36979897 36919829 36519821

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