MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0796

ACUS11 KWNS 251957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251957
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-252200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251957Z - 252200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. AT 19Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SE CO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD TO SRR IN SERN
NM. THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MIX AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. MODIFYING THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING WITH THESE
CONDITIONS YIELDS A WEAKLY CAPPED...VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J PER KG/. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FIELDS ARE WEAK
WITH LESS THAN 30 KT INDICATED ON THE HDX VAD AND LATEST
MESOANALYSIS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33740531 35430474 37700399 38110358 38180326 38160264
37880212 37210223 36020256 33360310 32110345 32020458
32530547 33740531

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.