MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0797

ACUS11 KWNS 252027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252027
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB...NERN
CO...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252027Z - 252200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS PSBL LATER THIS AFTN.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED/TOWERING
CU FIELD ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM E-CENTRAL WY SWD INTO NERN
CO. MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWS 40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
WY/NEB PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA DROPPING OFF TO 30 KTS OVER CO/KS
PORTIONS. DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE CINH AND WITH MLCAPE
OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG SFC BOUNDARY INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG OVER
ERN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA...EXPECT SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL STRUCTURES ARE
LIKELY GIVEN RANGE OF SHEAR VALUES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WHILE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE STG WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE
NOT NEGLIGIBLE...MAY BE TEMPERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BOUNDARY
LAYER RH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A PSBL WW THIS
AFTN.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43090543 42940409 42960256 42800164 42400078 41660045
40870027 40180044 38790066 38590188 38760282 39590397
41590505 43090543

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