ACUS11 KWNS 252312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252311
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252311Z - 260015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS ERN NM AS OF 23Z. WHILE UPPER FLOW IS MARGINAL...MODEST SWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW OF ATOP SELY SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
OF 25-30 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED MULTICELL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE...WHILE SEVERE WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LARGE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AS OUTFLOWS
MERGE THIS EVENING...THOUGH A GENERAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DIMINISHING OF AVAILABLE BUOYANCY WITH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
BEGIN TO LIMIT THE THREAT NEAR/AFTER SUNSET.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL...WW
ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IF COVERAGE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32820486 33860451 35350412 36950358 37000258 36960186
36980155 36050157 35550161 35020176 34800177 33800193
33060209 32080254 31460359 31700506 32820486
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