ACUS11 KWNS 262044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262044
MTZ000-262215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262044Z - 262215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD TO SCTD SVR TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A PSBL WW.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY E OF
GTF...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ENHANCED/TOWERING CU E TO
NEAR JDN. DAYTIME HEATING HAS REMOVED CINH AND ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN A MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...BUT POCKETS OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/LOWER LCL
HEIGHTS COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THIS AFTN OR EVENING
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A PSBL WW.
..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45910622 45770828 45861018 46281074 46791124 47571086
47771077 47961015 47990972 47900908 47810716 47570645
47190595 46500588 45910622
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