MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0809

ACUS11 KWNS 262204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262203
OKZ000-TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE/NWRN TX...FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262203Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL HAZARDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AS TSTMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE. MONITORING
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG
THE E-CNTRL CO/W-CNTRL KS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE ARCING S/SWWD
THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. HIGH-BASED CU HAS
GROWN IN THE PAST HOUR BOTH ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE. WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...THIS CU SHOULD DEEPEN
INTO TSTMS BY 23Z. WITH SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE KHHF
AND KCDS OBS...MAINTENANCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
E OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF A MODERATE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /SAMPLED
IN AMA VWP DATA/ ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN
ROCKIES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIKELY YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. GIVEN 35-40 DEG F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE
HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35860115 36200066 36609998 36519955 36289931 35519941
34349982 33540036 33340106 33380171 33600214 34370206
35860115

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