MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0820

ACUS11 KWNS 272024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272023
KSZ000-NEZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NWRN KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272023Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
BECOMING CAPABLE OF POSING A TORNADO THREAT...AND PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH WFO/S ACROSS NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL
KS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL KS /JUST S OF KHLC/...WITH ELY
WINDS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW HAVING INCREASED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KS. THIS LATTER FACTOR IS FAVORING A STRENGTHENING OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE WRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER LOWER MO VALLEY MCS...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE LOCATED NEAR AND N OF I-70 BETWEEN COLBY AND HAYS KS.
AN ENHANCED CU FIELD WAS LOCATED IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST
PROBABLE.

IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EXIT
REGION OF A 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET EMERGES NEWD INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...WHILE THE INCREASED ELY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 200-300 M2 PER S2/ FAVORING A TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39000088 39710101 40220014 40479924 40299788 39679748
38949790 38919832 38829900 39059996 39000088

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