MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0822

ACUS11 KWNS 272152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272152
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN/CNTRL SD...FAR SRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227...

VALID 272152Z - 272315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS WRN SD
AND NERN WY WITH RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND...WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL THREAT NWWD IN SERN MT. ERN PORTION OF WW 227 MAY
EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A WFO EXTENSION PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
01Z.

DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE WEAKENED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE GRADIENT WITHIN A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SERN MT INTO FAR
NERN WY. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM AT THE
SURFACE...REINFORCED BY WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE QLCS
IN WRN SD. EVEN THOUGH THE MT LINE IS DIRECTLY ATTENDANT TO THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE LACK OF GREATER DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION MAY MITIGATE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.

THE SD QLCS...ALTHOUGH SLOW-MOVING...REMAINS MORE INTENSE
REFLECTIVITY WISE WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS FORMING ON THE SWRN FLANK
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND AS SUCH SHOULD MAINTAIN A
CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AS DOWNSTREAM HEATING
CONTINUES...THIS QLCS MAY REACH AS FAR E AS CNTRL SD/FAR S-CNTRL SD
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 05/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 45819994 44440023 43020146 43030390 43500505 43980617
45110590 46000608 46860723 47140478 46550054 45819994

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