MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840

ACUS11 KWNS 282008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282008
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-282215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282008Z - 282215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SVR STORMS PRECLUDES HIGHER WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN CB
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS
REVEAL CINH REMAINS BUT CONTINUED STRONG HEATING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL LIKELY ELIMINATE CINH SOON. THERE IS SOME DISSOCIATION
BETWEEN THE BEST SHEAR /ACROSS SE WY...NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR SW
SD/ AND BEST INSTABILITY /ACROSS WRN KS/...LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO
THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH AROUND 30 KT/
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND...GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY THREATS
ARE SVR WINDS AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40480089 39410031 38400144 38210255 38550310 40410421
42060524 43350523 43920444 44120296 43430186 42450163
40480089

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