ACUS11 KWNS 292025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292024
KSZ000-NEZ000-292130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS....S-CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 240...
VALID 292024Z - 292130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 240 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS WW 240. ALL
SVR THREATS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A FEW TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA. TSTMS
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL NEB INTO FAR NW KS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LINEAR ORGANIZATION WHILE ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEGUN
MOVING NEWD. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS...AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.
18Z LBF SOUNDING SAMPLED AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GREATER THAN
3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED STRONGER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELD THAN REGIONAL SOUNDING FARTHER S. RECENT
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KT ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITH A DECREASE TO 30 KT FARTHER S.
SHEAR VECTORS HAVE A SLY ORIENTATION ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH...FAVORING A LINEAR MODE. HOWEVER...SHEAR VECTORS VEER FARTHER
E...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...COULD FAVOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS WITH A GREATER
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..MOSIER.. 05/29/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 39140159 41790181 41809791 39219786 39140159
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