DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051633
SWODY1
SPC AC 051631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NM EAST ACROSS SRN OK AND
WRN/NRN TX TO PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY...

...NM...
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION OVER RATON PASS IN NERN NM WITH OTHER
STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING ON AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF STORM INITIATION WILL BOOST
SBCAPE TO OVER 1500 J/KG IN A BROAD CORRIDOR NORTH OF OUTFLOW
REINFORCED COLD FRONT/COMPOSITE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE SITUATED
FROM ERN NM ACROSS WEST TX. DESPITE SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUBTLE.
NONETHELESS...DIRECTIONAL/VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND EVENTS
POSSIBLE. ITS ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS WHILE SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TX INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE OF DAMAGING
WINDS FROM ERN NM ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL AND INTO WEST
TX/SOUTH PLAINS.

...WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...
AN AREA SEPARATE FROM THE MCS POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN NM WILL EXIST
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE ACROSS
THE CONCHO VALLEY/SOUTHWEST TX. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE
AS HEATING/MIXING OVERCOME INHIBITION EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR
WEAK TRIPLE-POINT/THERMAL LOW. AIRMASS EAST OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
EXHIBITING DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE SUB-CLOUD
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AND
TOPPED BY 20-30KT FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A FEW STORMS TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...ANY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

...NORTH TX/OK/OZARKS EAST ACROSS MS VALLEY...
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND STORM COVERAGE
EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS/MCV IN SRN MO AND EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NRN AR TO THE ARKLATEX AND THEN WWD INTO THE
DFW AREA. IF STORMS CAN REGENERATE AMIDST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER ERN MO/AR THERE MAY BE A GREATER CONTRIBUTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO TN/MS AS EWD-TRACKING MCV
AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LEND SUPPORT TO BOTH
ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH...CAPPING AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

LATEST VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NW OK. WHILE AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF OK HAS
BEEN STABILIZED/OVERTURNED BY AFOREMENTIONED MCS/OUTFLOW...STRONG
HEATING OF ABUNDANTLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM SWRN TO SCNTRL OK. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE AIDED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
CAPPING AND RESULT IN A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE AND LOCATION...IN ADDITION TO
GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CAPPING/INHIBITION...PRECLUDE AN
INCREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT
THIS TIME.

...TN VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS SOUTHEAST...
REMNANT MCV/MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL EXIST
POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FORCING THAT MAY
OCCASIONALLY PROMOTE LOCALIZED STORM INTENSIFICATION...OVERALL
WEAKNESS IN FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE
WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY.

...FL...
LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING
LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY IMPINGE UPON THE WRN/SRN COASTS OF FL WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING IF CONVECTION
INCREASES/INTENSIFIES IN THE ERN/NERN SEMI-CIRCLE WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE GULF LOW.

..CARBIN/PETERS.. 06/05/2013

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