DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061630
SWODY1
SPC AC 061628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX EWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL AND SERN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN TX AND SERN NM...

...SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN TX WITH A DOWNSTREAM BAND OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS LIMITED CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCS FROM SERN TX ACROSS SRN
LA AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN THESE AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF
MCS CLOUD SHIELD...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. 12Z AREA RAOBS ALSO EXHIBITED
MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ENHANCE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG HEATING IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE CAP TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE MCS WITH CU FORMING OVER PARTS OF MS/SRN LA AND SERN TX.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER SERN TX...AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. VAD WINDS SHOW
ENHANCED WLY WINDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE MCV OVER NRN/ERN TX INTO
NWRN LA...AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV. THE RESULTANT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
LIKELY TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX/SRN
LA/ WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...FL/SERN GA...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING
NEWD INTO EXTREME NRN FL BY THIS EVENING REACHING ERN SC BY 07/12Z.
VAD WIND PROFILES AT TBW AND MLB SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /40-50
KT/ AMIDST CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PENINSULA ARE
INHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING...AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...SW TX/SERN NM AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR SW TX AND SE NM...AND THIS ENELY FLOW
REGIME WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY MID-UPPER
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STORM COVERAGE SINCE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS AT BEST...THUS MOST
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKE THE
DAVIS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..WEISS/LEITMAN.. 06/06/2013

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