DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021655
SWODY2
SPC AC 021654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN JUN 02 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL SD INTO NEB...WRN
KS...AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MON...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER CNTRL MT...WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. THESE LOWS WILL TRAVEL EWD
DURING THE DAY...AND THE PLAINS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS A RESULT WITH
A BELT OF MODERATE MID/UPPER FLOW FROM SRN CO/NRN NM INTO KS AND OK.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM S CNTRL SD SWD INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH INCREASING SELY WINDS AND SOME NWWD RETURN
OF MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE HAIL/WIND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TO THE E...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF A STALLING
FRONT FROM GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND
RAIN LIKELY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL N OF THE AREA.

...SRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ALONG
AND W OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH SELY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING. A NARROW ZONE OF UNCAPPED
CAPE WILL DEVELOP AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS
AND NEB. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID IN MAINTAINING SOME OF
THESE STORMS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS CNTRL SD...NEB...KS AND OK. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD BE HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS. A FEW
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER 03Z WHEN CAPPING
WILL INCREASE...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PERSIST GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.

...GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA...
A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. E
OF THE MTNS...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST...AS WILL WIDESPREAD
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND CLOUDS. THE EARLY CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THUS...WITH WEAK OVERALL
LAPSE RATE PROFILES...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
APPEAR UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 06/02/2013

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