DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101726
SWODY2
SPC AC 101725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM CA EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NERN STATES DURING THE
PERIOD. AN IMPULSE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
FROM NERN WY INTO NEB AND THEN E/SEWD INTO IL DURING THE AFTN TUE.

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY GIVEN LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NERN WY/SERN MT TUE AFTN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT IN COMBINATION WITH
A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. AS THESE TSTMS MOVE GENLY EWD INTO A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB.

SVR TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN EWD INTO NRN IL TUE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS A STG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES WARM ADVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS SEWD FROM
THIS AREA INTO MUCH OF IND...HOWEVER WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WILL
MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SVR PROBS FOR THIS UPDATE.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN...SHOULD A
STORM DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/SD/IA WHERE MLCINH IS LOCALLY
REDUCED THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR
SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND MLCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.

...SOUTHEAST U.S...
A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS THE
BASE OF THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THIS AREA. AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENLY DISORGANIZED...WITH ONLY A
FEW PULSE OR MULTICELL TSTMS LIKELY TO BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SVR HAIL/WIND DURING THE AFTN.

..BUNTING.. 06/10/2013

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