DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141730
SWODY2
SPC AC 141729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...LOWER-MO VALLEY/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING IN IA...IL AND WI NEAR
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE MODELS MOVE THIS ACTIVITY SEWD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS IA AND NRN IL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST A LINEAR MCS WILL ORGANIZE AND
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DAVENPORT IA AND SPRINGFIELD IL AT 00Z/SUN
SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500
J/KG. O-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT BUT SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS BUT STORM MODE
IS THE MAIN QUESTION. IF CELLS INITIATE AND REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN
SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FROM NRN MO
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SE IA INTO WCNTRL IL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. AT
THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND WRN KS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE FRONT RANGE AROUND MIDDAY WITH A
CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE CO PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NE CO AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 T0
2500 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE MTNS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO
DEVELOP...BECOMING MAXIMIZED DURING THE EVENING AS A LINE OF STORMS
ORGANIZES IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

..BROYLES.. 06/14/2013

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