DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN JUN 02 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON
MONDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING
NORTH-SOUTH LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW/NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT
LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
PROBABLE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WITH AT LEAST 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVING RETURNED NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL-HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONSEQUENTIAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1750 J/KG OF MLCAPE
POSSIBLE BY PEAK HEATING. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
SPEED MAX CROSSING THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE AND SOME TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS
WELL. INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING HIGH-PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF ONE OR MORE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
BENEATH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW/SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT...A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

..GUYER.. 06/02/2013

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