MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0927

ACUS11 KWNS 012205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012205
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-012330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AL...MIDDLE AND ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012205Z - 012330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF MULTICELL STORMS FROM NRN AL THROUGH ERN KY WILL
POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY SEVERE EVENTS
SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE...AND UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF MULTICELL STORMS STRETCHING FROM NCNTRL AL
THROUGH ERN KY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAK /AOB 25KT/ WITH SWLY 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS.
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS...FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL/KERR.. 06/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 33518773 34388699 35348648 36128598 36678538 37718454
38348370 38048331 37018324 35848435 34478570 33518637
32998791 33518773

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