MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0928

ACUS11 KWNS 012219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012218
TXZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012218Z - 012315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 22Z-01Z TIME
FRAME AND MOVE GENLY SWD WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 23Z.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NERN TX SWWD TO NEAR FST
AT 22Z AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD. AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER CROCKETT COUNTY ALONG THE FRONT. WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S...LATE AFTN
MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ARE COMMON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS AOB 35 KTS IN THIS AREA...THE PRESENCE OF EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MERGING OUTFLOWS WILL RESULT IN
TSTMS FORMING SWD-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ONCE THIS OCCURS...THE SVR THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY.

ONE OR MORE WW ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 23Z.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 06/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29829899 29600012 29630102 29900193 30690205 30970181
31100038 31209937 31159888 31029852 30979816 30749778
30569756 30209786 30049806 29909842 29819906 29829899

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